Global/Regional Impacts on Present and Near-Future Climate Regimes in the Metropolitan Region of Belém, Eastern Amazon

Impact studies have contributed to a better integrated scientific understanding of the climate and environment Amazon, in present, past, future. This work aims describe regional impacts human-induced landcover changes on RAINY (January April) DRY (July November) regime Metropolitan Region Belém (MRB), first frontier Amazonian occupation. Furthermore, dynamic downscaling (RegCM4 driven by HadGEM2-ES under RCP8.5 scenario) was performed investigate future global change impacts. A present (1985/2020) quantitative analysis showed that disorderly urban enlargement forest suppression led uncontrolled expansion pasture/agriculture area over MRB has conditioned local warmer with significant increasing air temperature trend both seasonal regimes. Another clear piece evidence systematic intensification precipitation during period. RegCM4 simulations indicate region will be impacted change, such conditions intensified rainfall are expected persist coming decades (2021/2045). Our findings for (area 3565 km2 population about 2.5 million inhabitants) relevant should considered tasks long-term planning elaboration advanced strategies mitigate climate-related risks disaster management.